Can the Republican Party Survive the 2016 Election?

As the 2016 general election draws nearer, the division in the Republican party has become more visible. Talk of a brokered convention and a rumored plot to overthrow the Republican's presumptive nominee, Donald Trump, has further revealed that the Republican party is facing a dilemma that could significantly affect the future of the party.

In his extensive article published in The Atlantic, commentator David Frum diagnoses the dilemma in the Republican party as one stemmed from class division. He comments on the failure of politicians such as Mitt Romney who run on the "Conservative Classic"--tax cuts, budget cuts, deregulation, and free trade, calling these people economic conservatives. However, economic conservatives do not make up the primary voting base of the Republican part; social conservatives make up the great majority of voters identifying with the Republican party. Social conservatives are in favor of entitlement programs and identify with "traditional" conservative values. The voting base of the Republican party has begun to feel betrayed by their own party, Frum explains in his article, adding that they feel the party does not have their best interests in mind. Because Donald Trump has focused his campaign on social conservatives, he has won great favor in the eyes of many Republican voters. However, the economic conservatives in Congress do not like his views or appreciate his ridicule, which explains why there have been rumors that the party leaders are trying to find someone else to fulfill the role of being the nominee.

In my opinion, I do not believe that this election will break the Republican party. I do however believe that changes will need to be made to the party's platform in order for the party to survive in the future. My generation particularly seems to be more leaning more liberal, therefore the Republicans may have to come more to the center with their core values in order to win votes. Also, I think that this election will force the Republicans in Congress to reevaluate their appeal to the voter base. The Republicans in Congress seem to be very unpleased with having Trump as their nominee, yet the reason someone like Trump could even be elected the nominee is because Republican party voters feel betrayed by their own party. I believe the Republicans in Congress will need to shift focus from economic issues to social issues in order to reunite their party.

Sources: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

Judicial Branch Post

Supreme Court Divided On Immigration

While hearing oral arguments on Monday, April 18th, the Supreme Court suggested an evenly split division along party lines in the case of United States v. Texas. The case calls for judicial review of President Obama's 2014 executive order on immigration. Twenty six states are suing the federal government because of Obama's Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Resident's Program. The executive order allows some immigrants to remain in the country illegally and apply for work permits. The plaintiffs claim that the order imposes upon Congress's power to make laws. The ruling for this case of appellate jurisdiction is  to take place in June, amidst a busy season in politics with the race for the White House heating up. Currently, it appears the decision is 4-4, although this is a mere speculation based on the questions asked by the justices. 

Political commentators are analyzing the situation in different ways. Dahlia Lithwick from Slate examined the case in context to the recent vacancy in the court and how Scalia's death has affected this decision. She suggests that if Scalia was alive, this vote would go to the side of plaintiffs, thereby overturning Obama's executive order. Commentator Amanda Sakuma from MSNBC mentioned that the prominent Republican front runners, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, both claimed that they would overturn Obama's immigration order if they were elected to office. 

This case is clearly very political and a decision will be reached in a heated time in this unique election. While the Supreme Court can only rule on the constitutionality of a case and must leave the problem solving of the immigration issue to Congress, if the ruling of the court is split 4-4, the lower court's original jurisdiction will stand. This lower court ruled on the side of Texas, therefore an even split in the Supreme Court would result in the deportation of 4 million undocumented immigrants. 

I am not sure where to stand on this case. I speculate that because 26 states are suing the government as a result of this executive order, perhaps this was not a great move on Obama's part. Also, The Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to cases that they are interested in hearing, therefore this must be an issue that the majority of the court feels passionate about. However, I believe that there needs to be some other solution to this problem than simply deporting 4 million people. 

Source: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-18/the-supreme-court-signals-division-during-hearing-on-immigration-order